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    On Tuesday night we were all (including me) counting Jim Costa amongst the casualties of the 2010 GOP wave. After all he was trailing Republican challenger Andy Vidak by 1823 votes with 100% of precincts reporting.

    Fortunately that judgement seems to have been  premature. :)

    Below the fold for all the details.......

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  • 11/09/10--01:59: What is going on in NY-25?
  • Well what a topsy turvy race this has been. On election night we thought that Maffei had it in the bag, only to discover, when all 4 counties that make up NY-25 reported all precincts, that the Republican candidate was in fact in front by 684 votes!

    Below the fold for more........

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    Texas and Illinois were the first two states where candidate filing was due to close. Then the US Supreme Court gave Texas one extra day.

    But nonetheless wander down below the fold to see how both parties are going at filling the slate in the first two cabs off the rank in the 2012 cycle.

    Oh yeh and take a look at the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki just because you can.

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    Courtesy of a craven cave in from the Ohio Democratic Party the Buckeye State now has an astonishingly GOP Friendly House map. Dropping two districts, courtesy of redistricting, Ohio has 16 Districts on the ballot with the only competitive races next November likely to be in OH-06 and OH-16. After a 2010 election night that ended up 13R/5D (ugh) a 10R/6D, 11R/5D or 12R/4D split looks likely post 2012. Candidate Filing closes on 30th December.

    Below the fold for the state of play with candidate filings and take a look at the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.


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    Well candidate filing has closed in both Illinois and Ohio, the first two states to do so for the 2012 election cycle.

    How did both parties fare?

    Below the fold for the state of play and please go and take a look at the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.

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    With the 2012 election now a mere 10 months away the time has a come to cast a look at how the parties are going with candidate recruitment for the House (quantity not quality).

    So how travels the good guys of Team Blue?

    Below the fold for details.

    **Brought to you by the gang that brings you the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.**

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    With 2 Californian GOP House members already retiring in 2012 and more likely to follow it is timely to have a look at the lay of the land with the entire Californian GOP House delegation.

    Below the fold for my rankings (and thoughts) of the most to least likely of the 19 Californian GOP House members to retire.

    **Brought to you by the gang that brings you the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.**

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    Last week I posted a diary showing how many Districts have Democratic Party candidates.

    So how travels the GOP?

    Below the fold for details.

    **Brought to you by one of the gang that brings you the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.**

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    Now that the dust has settled on election 2012 it is time to look forward to 2014. Some would say that we are just about maxed out in the California delegation but that is not quite the case.

    Below the fold for details.......

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    Wow wasn't 2014 a bruising midterm election? Except in California where (assuming Costa (CA-16) and Bera (CA-07) hang on) we have made a net gain of 1 (CA-31) to move up to holding 39/53 Congressional House Districts in California. Wow dizzying heights indeed.

    So now onto 2016 where with presidential turnout we should be playing both defense AND offense.

    Below the fold for details.....................(and a surprise prediction)

    UPDATE Now includes Cook PVI's.

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    Hi all, Long time no diary (actually it's less than a year). Evcoren published a diary last week about Democratic recruiting efforts in the House of Reps and, well, it scratched an old itch. So join me below the fold to have a little look see into the weeds about how Team Blue is travelling with candidate recruitment.

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    Hi all long time no diary.

    I have been seriously impressed with how quickly and determinedly Democrats have picked themselves up off the floor after the disastrous 2016 election to oppose and resist the Trump Presidency and all that means for the USA. The awful Trump Care vote is going to gin up our enthusiasm even more so. As it must.

    A great indicator of that enthusiasm has been the number of Democrats who have stepped up to the plate and nominated to run for Congress in 2018.

    But how well are we travelling in finding Dems to step up?

    Well let’s take a look see…………..

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    2016 saw California continue to trend Bluer at a Presidential level with no less than 7 GOP House Districts being carried by Clinton as well as an increasing statewide Voter Registration gap between Democrats and Republicans (14.3% - 2012, 18.9% - 2016). This of course begs the question what does it mean for the 2018 midterms for the House?

    13 of the 14 GOP Districts now have confirmed candidates and we can rest assured that the last one to be filled, the 21st, will have a candidate. Whilst it is still very early in the cycle we can now start to make an assessment of which ones may be competitive and which ones most likely will not. Of course if an electoral tidal wave builds they may all be competitive but this is unlikely, even in California. Naturally scandals, retirements, recruiting successes and failures as well as the overall political mood of the electorate and the performance of Trump between now and then all have a major role to play (obviously). As does the Trump Care vote, if it remains a hot button issue (paging the DCCC).

    So onto the Districts… 

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    So Federal candidate filing has finished in all 50 states and we are part way through the primary season.

    Democratic enthusiasm has been sky rocketing (as much discussed at DKE) at both State and Federal levels.

    But just how many districts did Democrats file to run in of the 435 US House of Representatives Districts this year and how does that compare with previous years???????

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    After a midterm that turned out to be a bounty for Team Blue in California, flipping 7 GOP Districts (half of their total), it is worth looking at how red those 7 districts actually are. This will in turn give us some indication of where we are most likely going to be playing defense in 2020.

    In order to hold all 7 of these districts each congress critter, their staff, their field operatives and the California Democratic party itself cannot rest on their laurels. This is self evidently true as is the observation that none of them can afford to be complacent, unlike many of the GOP incumbents that were defeated in November.

    Having said that, some of the California 7 are much redder than others. Shall we take a look see? 

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    Well now that was one hell of a midterm election wasn’t it?

    I would, to be honest, have been happy with 3 or 4 pick ups in California but 7 woweeeeee.

    So what’s left and what should we be targeting? Yes yes I know we should be chasing all 7 of the GOP districts but which ones are more likely than the others?

    So let’s take a little look see...

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