2016 saw California continue to trend Bluer at a Presidential level with no less than 7 GOP House Districts being carried by Clinton as well as an increasing statewide Voter Registration gap between Democrats and Republicans (14.3% - 2012, 18.9% - 2016). This of course begs the question what does it mean for the 2018 midterms for the House?
13 of the 14 GOP Districts now have confirmed candidates and we can rest assured that the last one to be filled, the 21st, will have a candidate. Whilst it is still very early in the cycle we can now start to make an assessment of which ones may be competitive and which ones most likely will not. Of course if an electoral tidal wave builds they may all be competitive but this is unlikely, even in California. Naturally scandals, retirements, recruiting successes and failures as well as the overall political mood of the electorate and the performance of Trump between now and then all have a major role to play (obviously). As does the Trump Care vote, if it remains a hot button issue (paging the DCCC).
So onto the Districts…