Quantcast
Channel: BENAWU

Texas Congressional candidates still needed

0
0

Texas Democrats are stepping up to the plate in increasing numbers as congressional House candidates but there are still a number of races without confirmed candidates!

Once again go and take a look at the  
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details.............


Ohio Congressional Candidates still needed

0
0

Candidate filing in Ohio closes in less than a week - 4th January - and we still don't have confirmed candidates in a number of Congressional House districts!

Once again go and take a look at the  
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details.............

More House candidates and a Texas shocker

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

375 House races filled

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

More about 2008 House races.

0
0

Whilst almost all of the blogospheres attention has been focused on the Presidentials great things have been happening in the House. Below the fold to see the Democratic hits and misses in vulnerable Repub districts as well as a large number of retiring Repub incumbents in vulnerable districts also ..............

Once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

381 House races filled

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

386 races filled 400 here we come!

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along. My last update was only five days ago so yep the candidate declarations are pouring out.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

391 House races filled 400 here we come.

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings. And other than an unfortunate performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along. My last update was only five days ago so yep the candidate declarations are pouring out.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***


More US House races filled as we steam towards 400!

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings. And other than an unfortunate performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

407 House candidates and rising!

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

413 House races have Democratic candidates

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

414 House districts have Democratic party candidates

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

417 House races filled

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

419 House Races filled

0
0

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

420 House Races filled - 2 more to go

0
0

Candidate filing is now almost complete and whilst we won't do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in at least 420 districts.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***


421 House races filled for 2008 - Election day here we come

0
0

Candidate filing is now complete and whilst we won't do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in 421 districts. Oh yeh and I am flying over from Australia in 10 days to spend the rest of the campaign volunteering for a house candidate!

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast - How many after November?

0
0

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.
We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

The Northeast - Continuing the realignment in 2010?

0
0

We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.

That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!
But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast........

Off to the 2010 House Races for Team Blue!

0
0

In less than 17 months the midterms will be upon us.
In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

Off to the 2010 Races! (GOP version).

0
0

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

313 House Districts now have Democratic candidates.

0
0

In less than 15 months the midterms will be upon us.
In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update intrepid Democrats have been confirmed in another 17 Districts.

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

300 House Districts now have Republican candidates (2 of 2)

0
0

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)


2010 Midterms - Filing closes in Illinois & some NY ruminations

0
0

Filing closed on Monday in Illinois; the first state to do so in this cycle.

How many of Illinois's 19 Districts did we file candidates for?

Below the fold for all the juicy details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

But before you do rejoice in the following sentence: "Congratulations Congressman Owens!" How fantastic does it feel to say that?

Many more House Districts now have Democratic candidates.

0
0

In less than 15 months the midterms will be upon us.
In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update many more intrepid Democrats stepped up to run in Republican held Districts!

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

353 House Districts now have Republican candidates (2 of 2)

0
0

A week ago I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Lots more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.
Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

Texas candidate filing closes soon

0
0

Candidate filing closes in just over a week, on January 4th.

How are the parties going vis a vis recruiting candidates to run in all 32 House Districts?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

The Northeast - Continuing the realignment in 2010?

0
0

That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

California Dreaming - 2010 House Races

0
0

With the midterms only 10 months away it is time now to cast our eyes over the biggest state in the country - California.

How will we fare in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Texas Congressional Candidate Filing closes

0
0

Texas candidate filing has now closed.

How are the parties going vis-a-vis recruiting candidates to run in all 32 House Districts?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)


Texas write in Candidates needed

0
0

Texas candidate filing has now closed.

As you may already be aware there are a number of uncontested Republican Congresscritters.

And that sucks - big time.

Below the fold to see exactly what you (if you live in Texas) can do about it.

(Cross posted here, there and everywhere)

Candidate filing rolls on - KY,WV & IN

0
0

Now that the dust has settled on the Massachusetts Senate Special (ugh) it is time to turn our minds back to candidate filing.

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

House 2010 Midterms - More than just defense.

0
0

Whilst the Massachusetts Senate Special and a series of dodgy house polls have Democrats convinced that the November midterms will be apocalyptic; the fact is that a number of Republican held House districts are in fact vulnerable to a takeover from Democratic challengers.

How many?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

House candidate filing rolls on and on

0
0

With candidate filing now closed in 28 states (as per the SSP election calender)it is time to pause, take a deep breath, and have a look at how both parties are traveling vis a vis candidate recruitment for the House of Representatives.

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Jim Costa will probably win CA-20

0
0

On Tuesday night we were all (including me) counting Jim Costa amongst the casualties of the 2010 GOP wave. After all he was trailing Republican challenger Andy Vidak by 1823 votes with 100% of precincts reporting.

Fortunately that judgement seems to have been  premature. :)

Below the fold for all the details.......

What is going on in NY-25?

0
0

Well what a topsy turvy race this has been. On election night we thought that Maffei had it in the bag, only to discover, when all 4 counties that make up NY-25 reported all precincts, that the Republican candidate was in fact in front by 684 votes!

Below the fold for more........

House Candidate Filing rolls on in Texas and Illinois

0
0

Texas and Illinois were the first two states where candidate filing was due to close. Then the US Supreme Court gave Texas one extra day.

But nonetheless wander down below the fold to see how both parties are going at filling the slate in the first two cabs off the rank in the 2012 cycle.

Oh yeh and take a look at the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki just because you can.


Ohio House Candidate Filing rolls on

0
0

Courtesy of a craven cave in from the Ohio Democratic Party the Buckeye State now has an astonishingly GOP Friendly House map. Dropping two districts, courtesy of redistricting, Ohio has 16 Districts on the ballot with the only competitive races next November likely to be in OH-06 and OH-16. After a 2010 election night that ended up 13R/5D (ugh) a 10R/6D, 11R/5D or 12R/4D split looks likely post 2012. Candidate Filing closes on 30th December.

Below the fold for the state of play with candidate filings and take a look at the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.

 

House Candidates - 2 States Filing Closed

0
0

Well candidate filing has closed in both Illinois and Ohio, the first two states to do so for the 2012 election cycle.

How did both parties fare?

Below the fold for the state of play and please go and take a look at the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.

2012 House - Dem Candidates piling in!

0
0

With the 2012 election now a mere 10 months away the time has a come to cast a look at how the parties are going with candidate recruitment for the House (quantity not quality).

So how travels the good guys of Team Blue?

Below the fold for details.

**Brought to you by the gang that brings you the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.**
 

Which Californian GOP House member will retire next???

0
0

With 2 Californian GOP House members already retiring in 2012 and more likely to follow it is timely to have a look at the lay of the land with the entire Californian GOP House delegation.

Below the fold for my rankings (and thoughts) of the most to least likely of the 19 Californian GOP House members to retire.

**Brought to you by the gang that brings you the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.**

2012 House - GOP Candidate Filing

0
0

Last week I posted a diary showing how many Districts have Democratic Party candidates.

So how travels the GOP?

Below the fold for details.

**Brought to you by one of the gang that brings you the 2012 Race Tracker Wiki.**

California 2014 - US House targets?

0
0

Now that the dust has settled on election 2012 it is time to look forward to 2014. Some would say that we are just about maxed out in the California delegation but that is not quite the case.

Below the fold for details.......

California - US House Targets 2016

0
0

Wow wasn't 2014 a bruising midterm election? Except in California where (assuming Costa (CA-16) and Bera (CA-07) hang on) we have made a net gain of 1 (CA-31) to move up to holding 39/53 Congressional House Districts in California. Wow dizzying heights indeed.

So now onto 2016 where with presidential turnout we should be playing both defense AND offense.

Below the fold for details.....................(and a surprise prediction)

UPDATE Now includes Cook PVI's.


GOP House Districts - be there a Democratic candidate?

0
0

Hi all, Long time no diary (actually it's less than a year). Evcoren published a diary last week about Democratic recruiting efforts in the House of Reps and, well, it scratched an old itch. So join me below the fold to have a little look see into the weeds about how Team Blue is travelling with candidate recruitment.

2018 - Candidate recruitment off to a flying start. But just how well are we doing?

0
0

Hi all long time no diary.

I have been seriously impressed with how quickly and determinedly Democrats have picked themselves up off the floor after the disastrous 2016 election to oppose and resist the Trump Presidency and all that means for the USA. The awful Trump Care vote is going to gin up our enthusiasm even more so. As it must.

A great indicator of that enthusiasm has been the number of Democrats who have stepped up to the plate and nominated to run for Congress in 2018.

But how well are we travelling in finding Dems to step up?

Well let’s take a look see…………..

California - House Targets 2018

0
0

2016 saw California continue to trend Bluer at a Presidential level with no less than 7 GOP House Districts being carried by Clinton as well as an increasing statewide Voter Registration gap between Democrats and Republicans (14.3% - 2012, 18.9% - 2016). This of course begs the question what does it mean for the 2018 midterms for the House?
 

13 of the 14 GOP Districts now have confirmed candidates and we can rest assured that the last one to be filled, the 21st, will have a candidate. Whilst it is still very early in the cycle we can now start to make an assessment of which ones may be competitive and which ones most likely will not. Of course if an electoral tidal wave builds they may all be competitive but this is unlikely, even in California. Naturally scandals, retirements, recruiting successes and failures as well as the overall political mood of the electorate and the performance of Trump between now and then all have a major role to play (obviously). As does the Trump Care vote, if it remains a hot button issue (paging the DCCC).

So onto the Districts… 

2018 House - How many districts have Democratic candidates?

0
0

So Federal candidate filing has finished in all 50 states and we are part way through the primary season.

Democratic enthusiasm has been sky rocketing (as much discussed at DKE) at both State and Federal levels.

But just how many districts did Democrats file to run in of the 435 US House of Representatives Districts this year and how does that compare with previous years???????

The California 7 - just how Red are they?

0
0

After a midterm that turned out to be a bounty for Team Blue in California, flipping 7 GOP Districts (half of their total), it is worth looking at how red those 7 districts actually are. This will in turn give us some indication of where we are most likely going to be playing defense in 2020.

In order to hold all 7 of these districts each congress critter, their staff, their field operatives and the California Democratic party itself cannot rest on their laurels. This is self evidently true as is the observation that none of them can afford to be complacent, unlike many of the GOP incumbents that were defeated in November.

Having said that, some of the California 7 are much redder than others. Shall we take a look see? 
 

California US House - 46 down 7 to go.

0
0

Well now that was one hell of a midterm election wasn’t it?

I would, to be honest, have been happy with 3 or 4 pick ups in California but 7 woweeeeee.

So what’s left and what should we be targeting? Yes yes I know we should be chasing all 7 of the GOP districts but which ones are more likely than the others?

So let’s take a little look see...

With the midterms looking more positive do we have opportunities for pick ups in California?

0
0

It seems that predictions of a massive red wave in November were somewhat premature as Democratic overperformance in recent congressional special elections has shown. Will it be a positive year for team blue? Dunno to be honest. Will the post Dobbs rage and enthusiasm to get out and vote continue? Dunno either nor can we predict what the popularity of President Biden will do or what direction the generic congressional ballot will move either.

But with all of that in mind it is well worth our time to have a bit of a look at all 11 GOP districts in California to answer the question — are any likely to flip or at least be competitive?

Let’s start with the districts that are unlikely to be competitive, ranked from least to most.

CA-20

Predecessor District — CA-23
PVI - R+16
2022 House Primary Result: McCarthy (R) 61.3%, Wood (D) 24.0%, Dewell (D) 6.3%,  Davis (R) 4.6%, Macauley (R) 3.9% - Wood won 0/4 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 46.54%, D - 26.88%

2020 Pres - Biden 36.4%, Trump 61.3%

There is absolutely no reason to think that this one will be competitive. McCarthy won a clear majority in the open primary, the voter registration gap is almost 20%, there is a 25% gap in the presidential vote and a PVI of R+16 means that this one can only be called one thing — Ruby Red

CA-01 

Predecessor District — CA-01
PVI - R+12
2022 House Primary Result: LaMalfa (R) 57.1%, Steiner (D) 32.8%,  Geist (R) 6.7%, Yee (NPP) 3.4% - Steiner won 0/10 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 42.58%, D - 28.55%

2020 Pres - Biden 39.2%, Trump 58.3%

Like CA-20 above CA-01 has the same fundamentals, only on a slightly less one sided basis. Based on a part of Northern California that just does not routinely elect Democrats. This one is not going Blue any time soon.
 

CA-48

Predecessor District — CA-50
PVI - R+9
2022 House Primary Result: Issa (R) 61.5%, Houlahan (D) 27.8%, Rascon (D) 9.1%, Jahn (NPP) 1.6%   - Houlahan won 0/2 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 40.83%, D - 29.60%

2020 Pres - Biden 42.7%, Trump 55.0%

All of those Republican voters in Southern California had to be put somewhere. CA-48 is that somewhere. Not quite as Ruby Red as the first two but pretty daunting nonetheless. Houlahan had all of $11,394 cash on hand at the end of June which doesn’t even remotely fill us with any confidence.

CA-05

Predecessor District — CA-04
PVI - R+9
2022 House Primary Result: McClintock (R) 45.5%, Barkley (D) 33.6%, Magsig (R) 13.2%, Wozniak (NPP) 3.2, Main (R) 3.1%, Obert (R) 1.5% - Barkley won 0/8 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 42.09%, D - 31.71%

2020 Pres - Biden 42.7%, Trump 55.0%

Back up to Northern California for the 5th, which has remarkably similar stats to the 48th above. Except McClintock couldn’t even get a majority in the open primary but don’t get too excited — the 4 Republican candidates got 63.5% combined.  Oh and Barkleys’ campaign committee was in the red as of the end of June. *sigh*

Next we take a look at 3 districts that may be competitive if Team Blue is having a very good night, again from least to most likely. 

CA-23

Predecessor District — CA-08
PVI - R+8
2022 House Primary Result: Obernolte (R) 60.9%, Marshall (D) 21.8%, Gomez (D) 17.3% - Marshall won 0/3 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 36.51%, D - 33.61%

2020 Pres - Biden 43.9%, Trump 53.7%

The 23rd is in some ways a bit intriguing. On one hand Obernolte romped the open primary in and Trump beat Biden by almost 10 points. However on the other hand the voter registration gap is only a whisker short of 3 points AND there are more registered Dems than Repubs in the Los Angeles part of this District albeit a tiny part of the district. Marshall obviously sees some potential having raised $651,529 as at the end of June. One to watch in future cycles me thinks.

CA-40

Predecessor District — CA-39
PVI - R+2
2022 House Primary Result: Mahmood (D) 40.9%, Kim (R) 34.7%, Raths (R) 23.2%, Tauras (R) 1.2% - Mahmood won 1/3 Counties in the District (but the combined R vote was higher).
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 38.15%, D - 33.28%

2020 Pres - Biden 49.9%, Trump 58.3%

40.9% in the open primary vs a combines Repub vote of 59.1% leaves a veritable mountain for Mahmood to climb, however as CA-39 it was represented by team blue from 2018-20. Both candidates have fundraised heaps but the 8.4% Trump margin makes it less likely to be competitive than some would assume. 

CA-03

Predecessor District — CA-22
PVI - R+4
2022 House Primary Result: Kiley (R) 39.7%, K Jones (D) 38.7%,  S Jones (R) 16.2%, Peterson (D) 5.4% - Jones won 5/10 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R — 38.23%, D - 33.19%

2020 Pres - Biden 47.9%, Trump 49.7%

The 3rd is similarly intriguing to the 23rd but for slightly different (and better) reasons. Let me list them. Trump only won by 1.8%, the voter registration gap is a tick over 5%, Kiley only won the open primary by 1% and K Jones actually won 5 of the 10 counties in this district. However the combined Republican vote was 55.9% (still not great) and the combined Republican vote was higher than the combined Democratic vote in 2 of the 5 counties that Jones won.  Both Jones and Kiley had raised more than $1.75 million by the end of June. Watch this one on election night. My tip as a potential dark horse.

We now finish with the districts that by all rights should be competitive on election night, again from least to most likely.

CA-41

Predecessor District — CA-42
PVI - R+3
2022 House Primary Result: Calvert (R) 48.2%, Rollins (D) 30.4%, Kurani (D) 15.6%, Lucio (R) 4.6%, Nevenic (NPP) 1.2% - Only 1 county — Riverside — in this district.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 36.39%, D - 36.46% — 323 people! (This increased to 1,655 as at 22/08/22.) 

2020 Pres - Biden 48.6%, Trump 49.7%

This one has snuck up out of nowhere courtesy of redistricting. 50/50 voter registration, 52R/46R open primary and the 2020 presidential results being a 1 point race and this one has all the hallmarks of a potential barn burner. What does give me pause for thought is the fact that Calvert, a congressman since 1993, has not been caught napping, unlike say Dana Rohrabacher in 2018. As at the end of June he has almost $1.4 million cash on hand. This is definitely one to watch on election night. 

CA-45

Predecessor District — CA-48
PVI - D+2
2022 House Primary Result: Steel (R) 48.2%, Chen (D) 43.1%, Pham (R) 8.6% - Chen won 1/2 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 32.36%, D - 37.69%                                                                                 

2020 Pres - Biden 52.1%, Trump 46.0%

Despite the fact that the combined Republican vote in the open primary was 56.8% the stats here speak for themselves — Biden won by 6% and 5.33% voter reg gap in favour of Democrats in a pert of California that is quickly turning away from Republicans. And both Steel and Chen had more than $2 million cash on hand as at the end of June. One to definitely watch on election night.

CA-22

Predecessor District — CA-21
PVI - D+5
2022 House Primary Result: Salas (D) 45.2%, Valadao (R) 25.6%, Mathys (R) 23.4%, Medeiros (R) 16.6% - Salas won 4/4 Counties in the District (but the combined R vote was higher in 3).
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 26.01%, D - 43.25%

2020 Pres - Biden 55.3%, Trump 42.3%

The gaudy stats here have masked an uncomfortable truth. Democrats have always struggled to get out the base, particularly hispanics, during midterm elections in this part of California.  So it is a simple equation — if Salas can turn out the Democratic base he wins walking away. Either way this one will be worth watching on the night but I would be more bullish if Salas COH was higher than the slightly anemic $690k he was on as at the end of June.

  

CA-27

Predecessor District — CA-25
PVI - D+4
2022 House Primary Result: Garcia (R) 47.1%, Smith (D) 37.4%, Quartey (D) 6.8%, Luevanos (D) 5.5%, Rudnick (R) 2.2%, Pierce (R) 1.1% - Only 1 county — Los Angeles — in this district.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 29.52%, D - 41.49%

2020 Pres - Biden 55.1%, Trump 42.7%

Yup come hell or high water this one will be enthralling to watch on the night. Massive voter reg advantage to Democrats, a more or less 50/50 split in the open Primary between D’s and R’s AND a part of California where Democrats have turned out in midterm elections before. I am concerned that Smith only had $305K COH as at the end of June but I am confident that won’t be the case for the September quarter.

So there it is. Going to be an interesting House of Reps election in California.

Thoughts in the comments please?






Latest Images